The Practical Lawyer

February 8-14, 2016

Presidential election matters even if your candidate isn’t nominated

By Ethan C. Nobles

We’ve entered presidential primaries season once again and calling the current political atmosphere contentious is a severe understatement.

Emotions are so highly charged on both sides of the aisle, in fact, that it seems a number of people have adopted the attitude that they’d rather stay home than vote for someone who gets nominated that they don’t happen to like.

That is a mistake because the next president will probably appoint a few U.S. Supreme Court Justices. The simple fact is that four justices will be in their 80s during the next president’s term. When you’re talking about a court that is staffed with only nine justices, it’s easy to see how the next president could appoint enough justices to create a major ideological shift. If our next president happens to stay in office for two terms, his or her impact could be even greater as that person will probably replace all four justices.

We’re talking about the same court that legalized gay marriage and will – no doubt – examine such controversial issues as gun control, Obamacare, whether states or the federal government should exercise power in certain areas over citizens, etc. The power to appoint justices to a court that is currently ideologically split is a major issue.

Let’s say, for example, that the simpering Jeb! Bush was able to steal the Republican nomination. I’m picking on Jeb! because a lot of Republicans find him extremely distasteful (obviously, I’m one of them). Meanwhile, let’s say Bernie Sanders becomes the nominee for the Democrats.

Jeb! is one of those candidates who will anger the Republican base almost as much as he annoys Democrats, but we can assume that he’ll at least try to pick some conservative justices for the Supreme Court. Yes, justices sometimes surprise the presidents who choose them by turning unexpectedly liberal or conservative and it’s easy to see how Jeb! could even mess up picking judges, but that’s another matter.

Under that scenario, those Republicans who stay home because they simply can’t vote for a milksop like Jeb! would risk giving Sanders the power to appoint up to four Supreme Court nominees. And you just know that Sanders would pick liberal justices who could give the left a solid majority in the court for years. Hillary Clinton supporters who can’t stand Sanders would face a similar problem – they might not like their party’s nominee, but would they hate him enough to let a Republican pack the Supreme Court?

While it can be argued that Republicans who refused to vote for John McCain or Mitt Romney created a similar problem, that’s not quite right. President Barack Obama replaced two liberal judges with two younger liberal judges. Ideologically, that’s a wash.

The next president, on the other hand, may be able to lock in a young, ideological majority that will stay on the court for decades.

Whether you are a Democrat or Republican, that is an important fact to consider when it comes to the presidential election in November.

Ethan C. Nobles is an attorney in Benton focusing on real estate, evictions, contracts, wills, trusts, incorporations and other areas of law as the mood strikes. You can reach him at Ethan@NoblesLawFirm.com or visit him on the Internet at NoblesLawFirm.com. 

 

  • Ethan Nobles
    Ethan Nobles